Early selection for livestock

We don't wait for potential to show. We predict it.

Every herd pays to raise replacements that will never earn their keep. We read the weights you already record during the growing period and tell you which young animals are worth keeping — months before the usual answer. No lab tests, no new equipment.

Your scale is the only instrument 10 years on commercial farms 4,000 head largest client herd
birth 1st weighing 2nd 3rd first offspring 0 live weight decision window keep cull
Two females born the same day. By the second and third weighing their paths have already separated — the decision can be made inside the shaded window, not after the first offspring.
PigsReplacement gilts, sow rotation, mating plans.in use since 2016
Sheep and goatsEwe and doe replacements, litter and milk traits.validation planned
CattleHeifer selection, age at first calving, longevity.validation planned
Any species with growth recordsThe model reads a growth curve, not a breed.on request
Your numbers

What late culling costs your farm

Move the sliders to your own figures. The estimate counts the rearing cost sunk into replacement females that leave the herd before they have paid for themselves, and the share of those that early selection can identify while they are still growing.

240
$320
30%
45%

Conservative by design: the model counts only rearing cost avoided, not the extra offspring, milk yield and weaning weight recorded in the original trial.

Rearing cost currently sunk into animals that leave early
$23,040
Of that, $10,368 could be avoided each year by deciding during the growing period instead of after the first offspring.
Today$23,040 sunk
With early selection$12,672 sunk

Check these numbers on your own data

The platform

HerdGen EarlySelect

You enter the weights. Our platform computes growth-intensity indices and growth-model parameters for every animal, ranks the group and tells you which to keep. Thresholds are calibrated per species, breed and country. Below is the working group view.

HerdGen EarlySelect · Group 24-B
PigsSheepCattle+ add species

Replacement females, 3rd weighing

48 animals · Large White × Duroc · updated today
IDGrowthg/dayPredicted litterScoreDecision
A-11746811.894keep
A-10444111.288keep
A-12941810.479keep
A-1424049.961watch
A-1333718.638cull
A-1083427.924cull
31 of 48animals above the threshold in this group
17identified for culling now, before months of further feed
+1.7offspring per litter in the trial groups selected this way

Illustration of the group view in development. Pigs are the first species we implemented; others follow the same structure.

How it works

Four steps, using data you already collect

Weigh three times while they grow

Individual live weights at fixed ages during the growing period. That is the only input the method needs.

Model each animal's growth

Growth-intensity indices and the Bridges and Richards growth models describe how an animal is forming, not just how heavy she is today. They apply to any species with a measurable growth curve.

Rank against calibrated thresholds

Thresholds are fitted to your species, breed and conditions. In pigs, growth energy above 410 g/day predicts a litter above 10 at first farrowing.

Keep the right ones

A clear keep, watch or cull list months before first breeding, and a mating plan for the animals you keep.

Evidence

Our evidence: proven first in pigs, by design

Few selection methods rest on a dedicated controlled experiment. Ours does. It was established as a multi-year controlled study, defended before an independent academic council, published, and then tested for ten years where it matters — in working herds.

The study was a full three-factor experiment conducted in 2008–2011 at a pedigree breeding complex in southern Ukraine: 120 replacement females, 48 dams, 192 animals on feeding trial and 48 carcass evaluations. It was defended in 2016 before a specialised academic council, with the head of Ukraine's Institute of Pig Breeding among the official opponents, and published in peer-reviewed journals.

Pigs were chosen because they give the fastest generation turnover and the harshest test of a prediction: an answer at six months can be checked against a real litter at twelve. The underlying relationships — growth intensity in early life and later reproductive performance — are not specific to one species, which is why the same structure is now being prepared for sheep, goats and cattle.

And on working farms, not only in the trial

From 2016 to 2025 the criteria were applied on commercial farms in southern Ukraine under long-term service contracts. Two of them became our reference farms: production herds where every group of replacement females was evaluated the same way, year after year, and where the approach proved itself in farm economics rather than in an experiment.

Plody Merkuriia farm enterprise, Kherson regionA family farm led by Serhii Pishta, in livestock since 2010 and grown to a herd of up to 4,000 head at its peak, one of the largest private operations in the region. Mr. Pishta is the kind of owner every breeder hopes to work with: he weighed every group on schedule, kept the records, asked for the numbers behind each recommendation and was never satisfied with last year's results.
Kerob Arutyunyan farm, Rozdilna district, Odesa regionA private breeding farm founded in 2014 by Kerob Arutyunyan, who built his herd around genetics rather than headcount. The farm became our reference site for growth-curve modelling and dam rotation.

Both owners invested years of disciplined weighing and record-keeping in this work. Much of what HerdGen EarlySelect automates today was first done by hand, group by group, on their farms. The same approach has since been applied on other farms in Ukraine and Armenia.

Methodological guide (2026): doi:10.5281/zenodo.22745011. Results were implemented on the trial farm and adopted in a university curriculum in animal breeding.

22.3%of the variance in reproductive traits explained by breeding method and live weight during the growing period
31%of the variance in litter weight at weaning explained by the same factors
  • Litter size of purebred dams was significantly determined by growth energy during the growing period.
  • Animals selected by the thresholds produced 1.7 more offspring per litter, 12.1 kg more milk yield and 52 kg more litter weight at weaning.
  • Crossbred females from lighter groups showed compensatory growth: litter weight at weaning rose to 160.7 kg against 115 kg in controls.
  • Thresholds established for pigs: growth energy above 410 g per day, litter size above 10 at first farrowing.

Science sees what others have to wait for.

Dr. Artur Ishkhanyan, Head of Research, HerdGen Analytics
In development · pilot farms in California, 2027

Built for farms of any size

Large integrators can afford genomic testing and their own geneticists. Small and mid-size farms cannot, and they are the majority of producers in the United States. We need nothing but a scale and the records you already keep.

Join the pilot list

  • Enter weights from the growing period, or import from your records
  • Indices and growth-model parameters computed per animal
  • Ranking against species-, breed- and country-specific thresholds
  • Keep, watch or cull list with the prediction behind each score
  • Track how last year's decisions played out in the herd
Working with us today

What we do for herds today

Farms

Herd assessment

Send your weight records for a group of young females and get them back ranked.

  • Keep, watch or cull list
  • Thresholds fitted to your species and breed
  • Written explanation for each decision
Farms and breeding companies

Selection consulting

Ongoing work on the structure of your breeding herd.

  • Weighing schedule and recording
  • Mating plans and breeding method
  • Replacement and rotation planning
Universities and research groups

Research collaboration

Joint work extending the method to new species, breeds and climates.

  • Joint trials and publications
  • Guest lectures and student projects
  • Partners in the US and Ukraine
Dr. Artur Ishkhanyan, Head of Research, HerdGen Analytics
The science behind HerdGen

Dr. Artur Ishkhanyan, Head of Research

HerdGen is built on the research of Dr. Artur Ishkhanyan, an animal breeding and genetics scientist with a Doctorate in Animal Sciences. The method at the core of our platform is his: he designed the controlled multi-year experiment, directed the collection and analysis of the data, defended the results before independent academic opponents and published them, then applied the criteria in commercial herds for a decade. Every threshold the platform uses today traces back to that work. Before HerdGen, he established and ran an agricultural wholesale market in southern Ukraine selected as a USAID AgroInvest pilot project, and worked at the Askania-Nova Institute of Animal Husbandry.

Doctorate, Animal SciencesBreeding and selection, 2016
Master of Public Administration2015
Certificate of Honour of the Verkhovna Rada (Parliament) of UkraineFor services to the Ukrainian people, 2019
PublicationsPeer-reviewed articles, methodological guide with DOI, conference presentations 2026

Research profiles: ORCID · Google Scholar · Zenodo

Where the method comes from

He was trained at Kherson State Agrarian University and belongs to the scientific school “Selection and Genetics in Animal Husbandry”, founded there in 1976 by Professor Vitalii P. Kovalenko (1940–2011) — Doctor of Agricultural Sciences, Corresponding Member of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine, Honoured Worker of Science and Technology of Ukraine, head of the university's department of genetics and animal breeding for three decades. The growth-intensity indices and growth-model work that this method builds on came out of that school. Professor Kovalenko was his supervisor; the department now carries his name, and his memory is marked by an annual national conference.

His second supervisor was Professor Borys O. Vovchenko, Doctor of Agricultural Sciences and Honoured Worker of Agriculture of Ukraine, who headed the department of nutrition biology and small livestock at the same university.

We see our work as the continuation of that line: what these scientists established in the laboratory and on paper, our platform puts into the hands of farmers, in a form usable on any farm, in any country.

Announcements

Where to hear our research

Talks where the HerdGen method and platform are presented to the scientific community.

8–9Oct 2026
UpcomingPlenary talkOpening addressOnline

Climate Change and Its Impact on Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine

III International Scientific and Practical Conference · Stepan Gzhytskyi National University of Veterinary Medicine and Biotechnologies of Lviv, with Warsaw University of Life Sciences, the Biology Centre of the Czech Academy of Sciences and the Georgian Academy of Agricultural Sciences

“A digital tool for early evaluation of pig productivity by growth intensity: from a dissertation method to practice” — Dr. Artur Ishkhanyan, Head of Research

12–13Oct 2026
UpcomingConference talkOnline

Conference in memory of Academician V. P. Kovalenko

All-Ukrainian Scientific and Practical Conference · Kherson State Agrarian and Economic University

“A digital platform for early evaluation of pig productivity: from a dissertation method to a commercial service for farms in the USA and Ukraine”

15Sep 2026
HeldPlenary talk

Economic and Digital Levers of Agribusiness Adaptation to Climate Change

International Scientific and Practical Conference · Institute of Climate-Oriented Agriculture of NAAS of Ukraine

Read the report in our Science Digest →

Science we're reading

Research that shapes early selection

Peer-reviewed work and university research we follow, summarised in our own words with a note on what it means for selecting young animals earlier. Sources are linked; opinions are ours.

Open the full Science Digest — 34 items across eight topics

Merck Veterinary Manual · reviewed July 2026 · R. V. Knox, University of Illinois

Growth rate is now a named gilt-selection criterion

The 2026 revision of the standard veterinary reference lists what an individual replacement gilt should be judged on: litter of origin, birth and weaning weight, growth rate to 160 days, health history, age at puberty and response to boar exposure.

Why it matters: growth rate during rearing is treated as a core selection trait, not a side note — which is exactly what our method measures at 2, 4 and 6 months.
Read the source
Animal Frontiers · Oxford Academic · April 2025

Poor gilt selection has a welfare cost, not only an economic one

A review of gilt-selection standards in commercial systems shows that animals chosen on structure alone at 20–22 weeks often fail later, and that sensors, data analytics and early-life biomarkers are the tools expected to raise selection accuracy.

Why it matters: the field is moving from visual inspection at five months to data collected during rearing. Weighing data is the cheapest of those data streams.
Read the source
Journal of Animal Science · ASAS Midwest 2026 · Iowa State University

What actually excludes a gilt at the multiplication farm

Researchers followed 414 gilts arriving at a multiplication unit at 8–10 weeks of age and compared animal-based measures between those later selected for breeding and those diverted to market.

Why it matters: selection decisions are being pushed earlier and put on measurable criteria — the same direction our thresholds take.
Read the source
Animals (MDPI) · October 2025

A gilt's future is shaped before she is born

A study on replacement gilts links prenatal conditions and litter of origin to lifetime reproductive performance, using reproductive-tract measurements from first oestrus onward.

Why it matters: early-life development predicts later fertility. Growth intensity between weaning and six months is the most accessible window into that development.
Read the source
Veterinary Sciences · May 2025 · Institute for Animal Husbandry, Belgrade / University of Zagreb

Performance-test traits in gilts respond to selection at 2–3% a year

A case study estimating genetic parameters for daily gain, backfat and loin depth in gilts on performance test concludes that systematic selection on these traits yields measurable annual genetic progress.

Why it matters: growth traits are heritable enough to select on. The question is only how early a farm can measure them reliably.
Read the source
UCLA · Computational Genomics Summer Institute 2026 · NIH-supported

Where prediction methods come from

UCLA's summer institute brings together statistical genetics, machine learning and biobank-scale data analysis — the toolkit behind modern trait prediction across species.

Why it matters: the same statistical methods that predict human traits from data are what allow a growth curve to predict an animal's productivity. We follow this work closely.
Read the source

Questions farmers ask

Do I need genomic testing?

No. The method works on live weights recorded during the growing period. If you already weigh your replacement stock, you have everything the model needs. Genomic data can be added later, but it is not required.

Does it work for my species and breed?

Pigs are implemented and validated. For sheep, goats and cattle the same models apply, but thresholds must be fitted to your own records first — that is the first step with any new farm, and we are open about it.

How accurate is the prediction?

In the trial, breeding method and live weight during the growing period explained up to 22.3% of the variance in reproductive traits and 31% of litter weight at weaning. That is a meaningful signal for a culling decision, not a guarantee for an individual animal, which is why borderline animals are flagged as "watch" rather than culled.

What does it cost?

A herd assessment is priced per group; consulting is a monthly retainer. The platform will be offered as a subscription scaled to herd size. Write to us with your species and herd size and we will send figures.

When will the platform be available?

It is in development, with pilot farms in California planned for 2027. Until then the same analysis is done as a service, and pilot participants get the platform first.

Talk to us

Tell us about your herd, your species and how you weigh. Our team replies within two business days, in English, Ukrainian or Russian.

info@herdgenanalytics.com

Company
HerdGen Analytics LLC, California
Office
15233 Ventura Blvd, Suite 500, Sherman Oaks, CA 91403
Research collaboration
research@herdgenanalytics.com
Press
press@herdgenanalytics.com
Academic roots
Kherson State Agrarian and Economic University, Ukraine — the V. P. Kovalenko school of selection and genetics in animal husbandry
Support
support@herdgenanalytics.com